• Decision-making with uncertainty
  • Uncertainty communication
  • Risk preparedness

Uncertainty Cognition

We live in an uncertain world. From weather events to financial markets, every day we are confronted with uncertainty. However, even experts have difficulty reasoning with uncertainty. Visualizations allow our visual systems to identify patterns in data that would otherwise go unnoticed. Visualizations can also help us focus on relevant data when making probabilistic judgments. Unfortunately, visualizing the uncertainty in complex phenomena such as hurricane forecasts can introduce new problems, as evidenced by the confusion associated with Hurricane Dorian's path. We study state-of-the-art uncertainty visualizations, along with the cognitive processes that lead to misunderstandings of forecast data.


Topics
uncertainty visualization, measuring cognitive effort, theoretical models of decision making with visualizations, mental models of data, rainbow color maps, effects of binning continuous data, hurricane forecasting, hazard maps, metaphors

Talks


Publications

2019

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The Powerful Influence of Marks: Visual and Knowledge-Driven Processing in Hurricane Track Displays.

Citation: Padilla, L., Creem-Regehr, S., & Thompson, W. (in press). The Powerful Influence of Marks: Visual and Knowledge-Driven Processing in Hurricane Track Displays. JEP: Applied.

2018

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Visualizing uncertain tropical cyclone predictions using representative samples from ensembles of forecast tracks

Citation: Liu, L., Padilla, L., Creem-Regehr, S., & House, D. (2018). Visualizing uncertain tropical cyclone predictions using representative samples from ensembles of forecast tracks. IEEE transactions on visualization and computer graphics.

*Downloads: Supplementary Materials, Visualization technique code, and User study analysis R code + data

2017

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Effects of Ensemble and Summary Displays on Interpretations of Geospatial Uncertainty Data

Citation: Padilla, L., Ruginski, I., Creem-Regehr, S. H. (2017). Effects of Ensemble and Summary Displays on Interpretations of Geospatial Uncertainty Data. Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications,2(1), 40. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-017-0076-1.

*Downloads: Data
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Uncertainty Visualization by Representative Sampling from Prediction Ensembles

Citation: Liu, L., Boone, A. P., Ruginski, I. T., Padilla, L., Hegarty, M., Creem-Regehr, S. H., ... & House, D. H. (2017). Uncertainty Visualization by Representative Sampling from Prediction Ensembles. IEEE transactions on visualization and computer graphics, 23(9), 2165-2178.

2016

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Non-expert interpretations of hurricane forecast uncertainty visualizations

Citation: Ruginski, I. T., Boone, A. P., Padilla, L., Liu, L., Heydari, N., Kramer, H. S., ... & Creem-Regehr, S. H. (2016). Non-expert interpretations of hurricane forecast uncertainty visualizations. Spatial Cognition & Computation, 16(2), 154-172.

*Downloads: Data

2015

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The influence of different graphical displays on nonexpert decision making under uncertainty

Padilla, L., Hansen, G., Ruginski, I. T., Kramer, H. S., Thompson, W. B., & Creem-Regehr, S. H. (2015). The influence of different graphical displays on nonexpert decision making under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 21(1), 37.